On a Tie in the Electoral College
One of the interesting scenarios from today's election is the potential of a tie in the electoral college. If this occurs, the most plausible scenario resulting in a tie is such (presuming that Kerry takes all of Maine's college votes and that Colorado will vote to maintain its winner-take-all system) :
Swing State Victors:
BUSH: WI IA OH NV NM CO
KERRY: PA FL MN MI HI NH
RealClearPolitics is reporting poll averages that show Bush is leading in all of states assigned to him above, while Kerry leads in all his assigned states, save Hawaii and Florida, where Bush has a 1 point advantage.
In WI and HI, Bush leads by 0.9%, and in IA, he leads by 0.3%. Kerry has a lead of less than a point in only one of the states in his column (NH).
If those numbers hold, this scenario could conceivably happen.
In the event that there is a tied college (and each elector follows the will of his state's vote), the House convenes to select the President, with each state delegation receiving one vote, while the Senate selects the Vice-President. Bush is likely to maintain his presidency in this scenario, but the fate of the Veep is less certain--if the Democrats gain a Senate seat, and all Senators vote on party lines, then a tie will result, and Senate President Dick Cheney would be responsible for casting the deciding ballot (presumably for himself). Of course, if the Dems achieve a net gain of two Senate seats, then John Edwards (!) will be serving as Bush's deputy.
Electoral reform, anyone?
posted by ROC @ 11:24 am
3 comments
3 Comments:
You're forgetting about Zell Miller, who I'm pretty sure has said he'd vote Cheney in such a situation, and the odds of the Dems getting a net gain of 3 seats when there are only ~33 open is pretty unlikely.
As for electoral reform, you can always construct a Constitutional corner case where bizarre and bad things happen, especially in one that's specifically *designed* to be complex, like the US one is. I don't see any real possibility of reform that produces a better system, especially since you'd need a massive level of agreement on a single replacement system to get it changed(the amendment process is a very high hurdle to clear). If you have any ideas though, toss them out.
It's a pretty decent system, as constitutional systems go...
Personally, I'd love to see an election go to the House.
Only problem is that if Bush won with Edwards as Veep, I'd feel compelled to start a pool on what month the first assassination attempt went forward.
Yeah, but at least then we wouldn't have to worry about the 0-year streak ending. Hillary Clinton in 2020!
</morbidhumour>
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